My hypothesis? Lowest common denominator games require quality to go down both in terms of growers’ product and winemakers’ product–chasing that thin margin requires it. That means that today’s great buys will either not be around in three years or not releasing wines of the same quality because what will be on the bulk market will be different–and it’s the bulk market that serves as input for what happens with secondary labels’ wine quality.

Right now, there is some amazing stuff out there as shiners, bulk, and grape purchases, but that won’t always be the case as lots of people are just barely holding on. The summer DTC season started late, and while cash is coming into wine country at the moment, its sustainability into the fall is in question, as it is every year. Once crush is over, people will then look to bottle and try to get on-vintage in a situation where three-tier still wants thin inventories. Those that can’t sell off enough excess one way or another will be out of business when grower payments (as either sender or receiver) come due. This would perpetuate a downward cycle and take a lot of growers and wineries with it.

Yes, we might still see great things in the high end, Napa and Sonoma, etc., but lots of folks up here are hurting, and I’m seeing more and more people unable to sell grapes or bulk because they need a certain level of return back just for debt service. Lots of pre-’09 land/estate/winery buyers did not account for the last eighteen months, and they are shellshocked and treading water.

So, if the high end has consolidated and shrunk, the bulk market will lose much of the quality wine of the last few years, and while consumers might still go looking for the same quality level they see now at those lower pricepoints, I don’t think they’ll be liking what they find in three years because what is current;y causing the surge of downward pressure will have taken out of the game completely those that are using the bulk market to try to shore up their cash needs right now.

Just a shrug-thought.

I agree with you, especially the last few sentences. I love wine, and I hope wine loves me back!

You’re assuming that the grower is putting in as much to those grapes now that he is getting $2K/ton as he did when he was getting $5K/ton. (I just got a call from a SMV grower who can’t pass his Chard and Pinot at cost to grow! Do you think he’s not going to cut corners to get by?)
Land prices being constant, you still have to water, till, prune and harvest - laborious tasks that suck up money. So, instead of 7 pruning/crop thinning passes in a season, a grower is willing to get by with 4 or 5. More wood & leaves on the trellis, less fruit dropping etc.
The grower has to pay his bills, feed his family and put a little aside as profit/savings. There is no way of avoiding reduced quality if you want to achieve those three goals and grow grapes that will make a $15 wine in place of a $50 wine. Those are not the “same grapes” as you say.